is this a +EV play?

  1. Forums Home
  2. Cash Games
Search Forums
Advanced search
1 2
J1MB0B
11
Tue, 03 Nov 2009 12:05
3 (who?)
Agree (0), Disagree (0), Funny (0), Educational (0), Interesting (0)
#1
J1MB0B 611 posts Scorpionfish

Posted: Tue, 03 Nov 2009 12:05 by J1MB0B

Edited: Tue, 03 Nov 2009 12:06 by J1MB0B

Moving Button to seat 1
hunty240 posts small blind ($0.02)
shirlycurl posts big blind ($0.04)
---------------- PREFLOP ----------------
to J1MB0B
J1MB0B raises to $0.20
LuckyAngel calls $0.20
larba calls $0.20
hunty240 folds
shirlycurl calls $0.20
---------------- FLOP ----------------
----- SWEET TOP PAIR GOOD KICKER + FLUSH DRAW (2 x J’s + 3 x K’s + 9 x Dimonds) I have 14 outs, which is approx 60% of making my hand better by river (if behind now)…
Airkam brings $6.10 to table 21488374
shirlycurl checks
J1MB0B bets $0.35
LuckyAngel raises to $1
larba coughs.
larba folds
shirlycurl calls $1
J1MB0B raises to $3.97 (all-in)----AM I RIGHT TO SHIP HERE??
LuckyAngel raises to $5.79 (all-in)
shirlycurl folds
Returning $1.82 to LuckyAngel uncalled
J1MB0B shows
LuckyAngel shows
---------------- TURN ----------------

---------------- RIVER ----------------

Taking Rake of $0.97 from pot 1
LuckyAngel has One Pair: Aces
J1MB0B has Flush, King high
J1MB0B wins $8.79 with: Flush, King high

Could any1 tell me how to work out if this is profitable in the long run??

Thanks in advance,

J1mb0b happy
Agree Disagree Funny Educational Interesting Top
#2
IneedUrChips 4636 posts Box Jellyfish

Posted: Tue, 03 Nov 2009 12:25 by IneedUrChips

Edited: Tue, 03 Nov 2009 12:28 by IneedUrChips

its neutral ev (that means a flip) against AA.

But against every set you are a dog, and a slight dog against flopped straight.

Overall this is a (slight) +ev move imo.
Agree Disagree Funny Educational Interesting Top
#3
J1MB0B 611 posts Scorpionfish

Posted: Tue, 03 Nov 2009 12:30 by J1MB0B

Cheers for the response INUC!

so when the $$ went in it was a 50-50 chance agains her AA??

thanks
Agree Disagree Funny Educational Interesting Top
#4
IneedUrChips 4636 posts Box Jellyfish

Posted: Tue, 03 Nov 2009 12:35 by IneedUrChips

Yes, 50/50.
Agree Disagree Funny Educational Interesting Top
#5
Robbieweeza 5513 posts Moray Eel

Posted: Tue, 03 Nov 2009 12:35 by Robbieweeza

INUC forgot to look at the stakes. Massively +EV at 4NL, always shove in this spot unless it's a nit.
Agree Disagree Funny Educational Interesting Top
#6
IneedUrChips 4636 posts Box Jellyfish

Posted: Tue, 03 Nov 2009 12:46 by IneedUrChips

INUC forgot to look at the stakes. Massively +EV at 4NL, always shove in this spot unless it's a nit.

Robbieweeza, 03/11/2009

ups, i did see small amounts of monies, but yes in that case its super +ev
Agree Disagree Funny Educational Interesting Top
#7
J1MB0B 611 posts Scorpionfish

Posted: Tue, 03 Nov 2009 12:51 by J1MB0B

sorry to be a pain lads, i am bad with numbers lol (getting better tho wink )...

it is 50/50 yes (after seeing her AA) - and i am getting more than 1 to 1 on my money so long term this will be +$$$$
Agree Disagree Funny Educational Interesting Top
#8
Robbieweeza 5513 posts Moray Eel

Posted: Tue, 03 Nov 2009 12:57 by Robbieweeza

You shouldn't calculate your EV based on results though, rather on your opponent's range (or, in the case of 4NL, on a range of virtually any 2toungeout).
Agree Disagree Funny Educational Interesting Top
#9
J1MB0B 611 posts Scorpionfish

Posted: Tue, 03 Nov 2009 13:20 by J1MB0B

so if i can say villans stats are like vpip40 and pfr17...

how would i determain whether this is a good move Robbie???

cheers for you time mate wink
Agree Disagree Funny Educational Interesting Top
#10
Robbieweeza 5513 posts Moray Eel

Posted: Tue, 03 Nov 2009 14:46 by Robbieweeza

Well, think of what kind of hands your opponent would make that play with and consider what your average outcome would be. You won't have time to know the exact numbers, but often it's not hard. When for example there are a few hands that absolutely dominate you but many that you have crippled, it's a +EV call.

Once you know which hands your opponent would take a certain line with it's a matter of knowing how much chance there is for him to have each of those hands (pocket pair less likely than different cards, suited cards less likely than unsuited, set less than pair, etc.) and estimating what you expect to win on average.

It can be number crunching if you want complete information, but with general knowledge and a bit of experience you'll find it becomes second nature.
Agree Disagree Funny Educational Interesting Top
1 2

Leave a post

You must be logged in to reply on this topic.
Register