Where is my variance?

By Ron76

13 posts 16 Oct 2009 21:26

Edited on 17 Oct 2009 10:09 by Ron76

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Edit:I am mainly a $5-10 MTT/SNG player

Everytime for about the last month now i end up in a showdown with AK AQ A10 ETC against 88,99,10 10,33 etc i lose.

Everytime i end up in a showdown with mid or low pair against K10,Q10,AK i LOSE!!

9 in 10 times i get AK In against A3,A10 etc I lOSE AGAIN!!

My bankroll is destroyed and i seem to be one of those players whose line of variance falls on the unlucky side where as someone else will have won thousands by now. I always seem to go out of tourneys near the bubble.Since July I have been screwed over again an again after being a winning player.

I have taken a break to no avail, and dont understand whether i should keep playing.

Predominantly i was a sng and tourney player, but now the only way i win money is through cash gaming.. which i dont enjoy so much.

Anyone with any serious advice or help to analyse my game?

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CheezYCheezY

267 posts

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LoL your first line : im a 5$-10$ player... sounds like ur playing cashgames really..

but you play SnG and Mtt of those stakes..

anyways variance can be cruel really, most players have it just proceed your game and play ur A-game.

If you win money with cashgames btw.... why dont you enjoy it? if i knew i win constant with some game then ill play it everyday.

If ur a fun player who just likes to play a game of poker then its fine you want to stick by the game thats most enjoyable but you talk about ur bankroll being destroyed and others having thousands so i really think you play for the money in first place so...

Go Cash Game!

IneedUrChips

3619 posts

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Try finding out why u were a winning player at the time, be4 bitching about variance. Thing is, good players dont go bust. Good players dont bitch about variance. Good players also try finding leaks in their own game to patch or adjust accordingly.

Im posting this in a very harsh manner, but this imo is the only way to show you what needs to be done.

If u get influenced by standard coolers that much, SNG/MTT isnt a game u shud chose, because you will only enjoy them when running HOT and ur 75/25's hold up - not to mention ur AQ's winning against AK's that u forget instantly.

So basicly, quit the bitching and try and improve ur game to a steady winning player Happy

GL Happy

* offensive but constructive

Robbieweeza

3822 posts

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[ ] Good players don't go bust

Anyone can go busto with the right amount of bad luck.Tongue Out

OP: switch to cash games. You might not be as unlucky as you think.

IneedUrChips

3619 posts

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[ ] Good players don't go bust

Anyone can go busto with the right amount of bad luck.Tongue Out

OP: switch to cash games. You might not be as unlucky as you think.


Robbieweeza, 17/10/2009

Im like, good players, not average retards with an even worse BRM. (ur not a good player if u dont use proper brm anyway)

But in general ur right Happy

Ron76

165 posts

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@Chips

This is the Tilt section. I thought i was allowed to bitch here Wink

"Offensive but constructive"

If you say so, but what can you actually recommend doing to find those leaks. As it is I analyse certain hands - not all as i dont have time, and i record all of my own game details and the key hands.

I dont get influenced by the coolers at all, I just move on, and my bankroll is so small it can easily go bust with the bad luck i have experienced. I have also probably been playing too many tournaments, yet the ones i do better in are if i qualify for a higher buy ins?

Reason for the post. I could pretend i was a good player and not mention anything, or instead i can be honest and write down my thoughts and see what people advise Happy

Either way i wont take offence.

IneedUrChips

3619 posts

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Send me some of your STT handhistories, and ill try and analyse your plays, and point out couple of things for u, hows that sound?

I'll provide my email adress if u want me to check them.

Robbieweeza

3822 posts

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Send me some of your STT handhistories, and ill try and analyse your plays, and point out couple of things for u, hows that sound?

I'll provide my email adress if u want me to check them.


IneedUrChips, 17/10/2009

I'd take that offer, Ron.

Ron76

165 posts

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Chips,

I'll happily take you up on that offer and send some over, as I'm sure you will have some stright up advice for my stt game. let me know where you want me to send them.
thanks

IneedUrChips

3619 posts

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Ron, check ur guestbook, and please delete my adress after u read it Happy

Id like to have a couple of sng's when running well and running bad, to see whats happening.

IneedUrChips

3619 posts

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Hi Ron,

As promised i wud read through ur HH's u sent me, and give a summary and some pointers that might give u a lil bit more of an edge in playing SNG's and prolly even MTT.

Where to start - do note im harsh, but realistic.

If i have to describe u as a player, u come across as a weak-tight passive player. U rather check-call than take initiative. You have no idea whatsoever how important effective stacks are at a table, and that probably is one of the biggest leaks in your game.

For example, you have 1000 chips at blindlevel 125/250 and you are at on the big blind, someone minraises to 500, and you flatcall on the BB with K8off.

This is retarded, because when you decide to call this raise, u only have 2BB behind, thus you are committed to this hand already by deciding to call, and furthermore have 0% Fold Equity left. In spots like these there are 2 options, push or fold, but u fold on the flop!!! YOU CANT FOLD ON THE FLOP!

Another example, you tend to limp pocketpairs up to 88 in sixmax sng's independant of position. I've seen a hand where u limp 88 with an effective stack of 1200 at 50/100 level, in the cutoff, where u have to raise 100% of the time there is no other option.

So basicly you get yourself in to trouble by a couple of things:

1) playing weak-tight and passive
2) no knowledge of postional play
3) ICM (independant chip model) - google it
4) Equity against expected range of opponent
5) creativity (like 3betting light if someone is raising u every orbit)

If i would have to give you some pointers, i think its better to start of by trying to get more agressive, raise more, reraise more, play draws more agressive, and get the initiative in the game. Let them fear you when u sit down. Position, position and position, probably the difference between breakeven/losing and winning. Ask urself the following thing every hand: What is my position, what is my stacksize, how does my stack correlate between other stacks, how many BB's do i have, is a push or fold or raise the best thing to do, how am i perceived, how do i perceive others etc etc...

In fact, I would recommend you to read some articles on SNG's on various sites (2+2, Deuces Cracked) and maybe even try one of the SNGWizard tools available to see how ur play affects the probable equity u miss.

Like i said from the start, this may sound harsh, but im trying to help you here.

You cant blame variance for digging in, its the spots u fail to see that cost you the money!

Ron76

165 posts

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Thanks Dude.

I think a lot of what can be summarised and what i have figured out too comes down to confidence, and Maybe because of what I have perceived as bad luck/bad timing recently i have not been playing with some of the confidence i was before.

I've realised this having analysed these and a few hands recently and its great to have another player point it out too and I will take note and try to read a few more articles. Plan to read a couple of books too.

I will make a comment on my general play though from you say:

In general you are right I am a tight player, although believe me i can be unpredictable and play any hand, different ways.
In relation to me gettign into trouble:

1) playing weak-tight and passive
2) no knowledge of postional play
3) ICM (independant chip model) - google it
4) Equity against expected range of opponent
5) creativity (like 3betting light if someone is raising u every o


Point 2: Disagree with you here. I do understand position and think about this all the tiem at the tables.

Point 3: I know what ICM is andhave read about it and tried to use it in my game, although this is a work in progress

Point 4: I understand equity - point is though and mayeb if multi tabling I make mistakes

Point 5: Creativity. Do you mean me trying to be creative? If so then yes I have identified this as a problem.

I think I know what i have to do Chips and hopefulyl this advice will help others too.

still going ok on the cash tables - so will play more of those.

Also last night in the 1000 premium freeroll i got shortstacked in position with everyoen foliding to me. I went all in with 45, sb called, BB folded. I lost and went out, but amusingly was called a donk for doing it despite having no alternative..

also if i am sat at a table again with you Chips as i was about 6 months ago, i'm always going to slow play my kings against you Wink just to wind you up.

IneedUrChips

3619 posts

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Hi mate, glad u took my critisism like a man Happy

Ofcourse if u run bad, a natural habit is to play more passive, because every hand you look down on, every flop u see, has multiple problems and you are sure to get outdrawn.

Thing is, if you stick too long in the passive-weak scene, your game is gonna be altered for the long run, thus you will run even worse and start getting a losing player rather than a dominating one...

You seem to have the theoretical knowledge already for a big part, as I read in your reply, but so do politicians, and look how they mess up Happy

1. Position, 2. agression, 3. image, 4. effective stacks 5. creativity....

Creativity is a very underrated phenomenon in poker, thats why most players are so easy to read. If you have the balls to 3bet from the BB when some guy opens on the button, you start figuring out that the cards you have are less important than the story you are telling to this guy...

Thats something you have to find out on your own, because you have to feel comfortable doing unorthodox things Happy

Anyway, keep your head up, and please do not f*ck up your game by playing scardycatpoker Happy

FinnBinn

1855 posts

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You are brilliant INUC, I was a little upset over the holland thing but I see you are a sound man and willing to give people advice, not some wishywashy advice either but good sound solid advice, I for one love reading your posts and take good notes of some very good pointers.

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