Bluefire strategy: Never stop thinking (Part 2)

PKR presents the best of Bluefire poker's Phil Galfond.

Here’s a big hand I played recently against a very good, very aggressive high stakes pro. We’re playing $200/400NL four handed. He has $47k and I have him covered (have more money on the table than he does). He raises on the button and I call in the BB with Ad 8d. Flop is K-8-6 rainbow. I check; he bets the pot ($2600); I call. Turn is an offsuit 6. I check and he pots it again for $6800. He is very aggressive and he would definitely bet K-Q for value on all three streets. He checks behind on the turn with probably K-10. He would also fire the turn but sometimes give up on the river with hands like 9s 7s, 7d 5d, 10-9, and the occasional complete bluff. I decided to call the turn. River is a ten. I check. He thinks for a while and then bets $15,200 into $20,400. Now, to call this bet I have to think he’s bluffing about 30% of the time (based on pot odds). I have a pair of eights, so all I can beat is a bluff.
So, call or fold? Pick one, right now.

I figured that he wasn’t bluffing 30% of the time. Maybe like 15-20%, which wasn’t enough for me to call, so... I... raised! I went all in for $36,000, leaving him $21,000 more to call. So, I was risking $36k to win $35.6k. This play had to work half the time to break even. So, I still win the pot the 15-20% of the time he’s bluffing. If he isn’t bluffing, he usually has a hand like K-Q or AA, which we have to get him to fold almost half the time in order to show a profit. (Note that even if calling is profitable, a raise may be even more profitable.) Making someone fold an overpair seems like a tough task, but look at the hand from his perspective: I called a flop with almost no draws on it. The turn paired the bottom card and I called a full pot bet again. There’s no chance I would call a draw there for a full pot bet on two streets. I have to have a made hand (meaning a pair or better). Now when I raise the river, his A-A can only beat a bluff. I don’t raise the river for value with A-K. So, with what hand could I call two pot-sized bets that now has to bluff to win? He timed all the way down and folded what I assume was an A-K type hand, and I raked in a hard-earned $52,000 pot.

Don't overbluff

A warning before I go: Don’t go bluff-raising every river. Your opponent has to be capable of putting you on a hand and making a big fold. The same thing goes for making strange bets. Know what kind of reaction you are looking for and whether or not your opponent will comply. The examples I gave here are just to show you how to think outside the box. I could’ve listed hundreds of spots where nonstandard thinking can help. Consider every option you have. Before you make a call or fold, think for a second whether a raise might be better and why. Before betting 2/3 pot, consider what betting 1/4 pot might make your opponent do. Even if you decide that the “standard” play is better, at least now you’re thinking about why you are making it.

Good luck exploring your many options. 

Read Part 1...

© Phil Galfond. Originally published in Bluff Magazine (US edition)

Phil Galfond is one of the world's most successful poker players - you can use your PKR Points to subscribe to his hugely popular poker training site, Bluefire poker.