When you make a bet or raise, ask yourself these questions:
What am I hoping my opponent does?
Is this bet likely to accomplish that?
What hands am I trying to get to fold?
What hands am I trying to get to call?
What hands am I trying to get to raise?
What hand (that is different than my hand) am I representing?
Here’s a hand example:
25/50 NL, heads up against a smart but loose player.
Bill raises As8s to $150 on the button with $5000. BB calls with $7000.
Flop is 2sQh9s.
He checks; Bill bets $250; he calls.
Turn is 4h.
Check, check.
River is the 7c.
He checks; Bill wants to bet $800.
Why?
Me: What are you hoping your opponent does?
Bill: Folds.
Me: Is this bet likely to accomplish that?
Bill: I missed my draw. I have to bet.
Me: What hands are you trying to get to fold?
Bill: All of them?
Me: Specifically, what hands do you think he can have that he would call the flop?
Bill: K-Q, Q-J, Q-10, J-10, low spades, K-J, K- 10, 10-8, 9-8, 10-9, A-9, J-9, other pairs.
Me: Doesn’t he usually bet the river with a queen?
Bill: Okay, yeah, so the rest of them.
Me: Do you think a nine or other pairs will fold? Didn’t a lot of draws miss on the river?
Bill: I guess they would usually call.
Me: So, you want to make what hands fold? You have ace high. You beat K-J, K-10, and 10-8.
Bill: Oh. Well. Maybe a nine will fold.
Me: What hand are you representing?
Bill: Something like Q-10.
Me: The pot is $800 on the river. How much would you usually bet with Q-10?
Bill: Like $550, I guess.
Me: Oh.
Bill: Oh.
Another similar leak that people make is just pounding on pots with a strong hand or draw, with no reason behind it. Some people bet huge on all streets with top pair, even on very dry boards. Sometimes they bet so strongly that the only hands that will call their bets are better ones. For some reason, these people prefer to “take down the pot” than make more money. Some people will bet huge on the flop and turn with a flush draw (this is often a fine move), then get check-raised all in on the turn and have to fold because they don’t have the odds to call.
Think about how your opponents might respond to your moves. If they’re going to either fold or shove on the turn and never call, your flush draw may as well be complete air. When they fold it doesn’t matter what you had, and when they shove you have to fold anyways.
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© Phil Galfond. Originally published in Bluff Magazine (US edition)
Phil Galfond is one of the world's most successful poker players - you can use your PKR Points to subscribe to his hugely popular poker training site, Bluefire poker.