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WSOP analysis: Michelle vs Eastgate

Calling out of position with danger hands can leave you in a world of hurt, as Tiffany Michelle discovered at the 2008 WSOP

By Nick Wealthall on Tuesday 23 Jun 2009 16:00

Part of the following series: WSOP/WSOPE hand analysis


PKR cards speard on the table - blurred

Calling out of position with danger hands can leave you in a world of hurt, as Tiffany Michelle discovered at the 2008 WSOP

It’s down to the last 17 at the 2008 WSOP Main Event with big money at stake. Chip leader Dennis Phillips opens the action under the gun for 500,000 with J-T offsuit. With the blinds at 60,000/120,000 this raise is far too big and unless he sees it as a pure steal it’s far too light under the gun. Peter Eastgate is dealt A-A in middle position and decides to trap by smooth-calling. His play has two aims. Either it will induce a reraise behind him or he’ll reach the pot heads-up with a disguised hand.

The action is folded round to Tiffany Michelle in the big blind who holds Ac-Jd. At the start of the hand Tiffany has 4.25 million or roughly 35 big blinds. This is a really marginal spot. She is getting great pot odds on the call (380,000 into a pot of 1.3m for over 3-to-1). However, she has an awkward stack size and is out of position against an under-the-gun raiser and a smooth-caller. If she thinks Phillips is opening light and Eastgate’s call is weak there’s an argument for three-betting - though her stack size makes it very difficult if she gets action. However tight it may seem, a fold may be the best play here.

Michelle calls and the three players see an Ad-Th-9c flop. Phillips decides to continuation-bet 1m with his middle pair. It’s close as to whether he should continue into two opponents here but he can convincingly represent a big Ace and his opponents may have speculative hands. Eastgate has hit the dream flop though with top set. He knows it's extremely unlikely a player holds an Ace (though of course one does), so tries to induce further action on the turn by smooth-calling.

 

Trapped

The action moves round to Michelle with 3.68 million in the pot. It will cost her 1m to call and she has 3.85m behind. And here is the problem with her preflop decision. She has hit one of the best flops she could hope for and is in a horrible spot.

Actually she needs a very fortunate combination of circumstances to be ahead. Phillips has opened under the gun and continuation-bet into two players, which looks strong. Eastgate’s call behind is extremely strong. He can seldom float here, as not only is there no guarantee Phillips will stop betting but also he has a player behind him. His legitimate holdings all have her beaten. In order for her to be ahead Phillips has to be opening and continuation-betting light AND Eastgate has to be floating or have a hand like A-8 or Q-J (this flop is especially bad as A-9 or A-T would have now made two pair).

But can she fold? Most of us would do the same as she did and simply shove all the chips in. This hand perfectly shows the problems of playing a 30-something big blind stack and, even more so, calling out of position with reverse implied odds hands like A-J.


Comments

Oh, and nice analysis- all these articles are really useful

Comment by gman19 - 26/06/09 (Report)

All I'm gonna say is that I loved seeing Tiffany Michelle going busto-serves her right for calling the clock on Paul Snead

Comment by gman19 - 26/06/09 (Report)

I think the shove is right to the way she played -
however i think her way of smooth calling in the beginning is a gambling move.
Going for her A J with some action before her will tell something about those players.
The first one can have everything - in order to know where she was preflop she should have reraised the first one. If that was the only one in the hand.
Eastgate's smooth calling will also tell something - either he has a monster or a very good calling card. With a reraise pre-flop she could tell were she was.

on the flop the action is about the same - for the second time she only is playing her own cards instead of trying to know why the other players will bet and just call....

in my opinion she made the same mistake twice by just playing her own cards and not the cards of the other ones....

there could even be a 999 or 10 10 10 there - and she didnt even concider.

Comment by SmooC - 24/06/09 (Report)

Edited on: 24 Jun 2009 13:02

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