WSOP analysis: Raymer vs Murphy

John Murphy, a young American pro, calls with 5h-3h in the cutoff looking to flop big in case Raymer has limped with a monster. Greg Turk in the big blind checks his Kc-4d.

The Ad-Jh-2h flop gives Murphy a wheel straight draw as well as the flush draw, albeit a low one. Turk and Raymer check to Murphy who fires 25,000 into the pot. Turk insta-folds and Raymer check-raises to 65,000 with air, representing that he limped in with a monster hand after all. Murphy calls.

The turn is the 6s and neither player has yet made a hand. Raymer checks to Murphy, who bets out 80,000 and Raymer puts him to the test by check-raising for the second time, making it 200,000 to go. Murphy wastes no time in announcing that he’s all-in.

Reckless shove?

In the face of such check-raising strength was Murphy’s move a hopeful one? Given the circumstances, no. Raymer had been bullying the table with a lot of raises (in fact, in the two hours leading up to the final table Raymer increased his stack from 5m to 8m by applying just this kind of pressure), so Murphy was well aware that Raymer could be check-raising with far less than a usual check-raising range.

In the absolute nightmare situation that Raymer has flopped a set, Murphy is still going to win 22.7% of the time. In itself that’s not great, but combined with the amount of fold equity he has it’s a great move. Raymer is forced to fold any weak Ace as Murphy is making his hand look super-strong by flat-calling the check-raise on the flop and three-betting all-in on the turn. The range of hands Raymer can call with is so narrow that, given the huge chunk of chips he’d have to give up, the Fossilman would also be forced to throw away most drawing hands. It’s a bold move but was made for the right reason; Murphy was playing the player not just his cards.