Understand the factors that cause variance and you should in turn boost your bankroll. However, things such as long-term averages are notoriously difficult to measure in poker. In the absence of reams of data and sophisticated mathematical analysis, what should you know about variance?
Misunderstanding variance has probably caused more hardship and pain than anything else in the game. Yet detailed analysis is not necessary as long as you know the factors that affect variance, and select your games accordingly. Here are the main factors to consider…
Edge: The more of an edge you have over your opponents, the less your long-term results will fluctuate. In other words, stick to games you know you can beat. For example, if there are players who will pay you off with their whole stack every time you have a set, the bad times will bite much less than in a game where in order to show a long-run profit, you need to make moves such as value-betting middle pair on the river.
Stack depth: Whether in a cash game or tournament, the relationship between the size of the blinds and the size of your stack will govern how you play your hand. If you are ‘deep’ (i.e. you have a big stack-to-blind ratio), you can wait for a big hand or a very favourable situation before committing a large amount of chips. The shallower you are, the more risks you will have to take.
Blind increases (tournaments): In cash games, you have much more control over how deep you are; not so in tournaments. The lower the stack-to-blind ratio, the more variance. Pay attention to: (a) starting stack; (b) length of levels; (c) blind structure (i.e. how much the blinds increase each level). Faster structures like turbos and super turbos will obviously yield higher variance.
Tournament opponents: You are likely to show greater variance in overall results when playing tournaments with larger fields. For example, if dumb luck accounts for, say, two of the final-table places in tournaments with fields of 1,000+ players, your results will deviate much further from the norm than in those with fields of only 30 players.
Playing more hands: Whenever you play more hands than advised by the ‘old school’ wisdom of waiting for a premium holding, you will attract greater variance in your results. The following factors will tend to increase the number of hands you play, and thus the variance in your results: (a) playing shorter handed; (b) going up the stakes (i.e. reducing your edge); (c) having a looser and more aggressive style. This is not to say you should be a rock, just be aware that the more creative and aggressive your style, the higher your variance is likely to be.
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