The turn is without doubt the toughest street to get right in no-limit hold’em. Often the critical decision will come here, as stack sizes are such that when considering the turn bet you’re not really just calling that street alone but are committing yourself to calling on the river as well. Thankfully this decision isn’t being made in a vacuum. You’ve now got two phases of information from the preflop and flop action (though so have your opponents). When you’re in control of the pot you’re hoping to manipulate it so that you maximise your profit on the river and when you’re on your back foot you’re hoping to get to the river on the cheap or seize on weakness.
This is where position really comes into its own, as it’s hard to control the pot when you’re first to act. When you’re in position and a preflop raiser who has continuation-bet the flop checks to you on a seemingly blank turn card, it’s akin to a neon sign flashing ‘I’ve given up on the pot!’ Some tighter players may check a weak top pair to you fearing you’ve flopped a monster, but that can still be an invitation to attack.
If, however, an opponent makes exactly the same bet on the turn as they did the flop then it’s usually a sign of weakness as they’re now betting a much smaller percentage of the pot. For instance betting 80 into a pot of 160 on the flop is a half-pot bet and seems a reasonable amount to bet, whereas if they make the same bet of 80 into a now inflated pot of 320 on the turn it looks that much weaker. This bet is frequently made by A-K that has missed the flop and turn, or a hand that is drawing.
Quick on the draw
Timing tells are also worth looking out for. A quick bet is a sign that the player is either at the top or bottom of their range, as they either hold a hand so strong that they do not need to think about their bet size much, or they hold no hand and are trying to convey strength by betting so quickly.
The turn and river are also where you’re most likely to see a deviation in the betting pattern. For instance, a classic pattern is raise preflop, make a min-bet on the flop, if called make another min-bet on the turn and then on the river make a pot-sized bet. The larger river bet is always made because they’ve eventually made their draw and are betting for value or because they’ve missed their draw and are betting as a bluff.