When you are contemplating a big river call with a very marginal holding you have to understand that on some boards relative hand strength is incredibly important. Say you and I play a pot. We clash for one moment in time in a six-max cash game on PKR. In a raised pot the two of us see a flop. Just one single pot. The flop comes 3s-5s-7s. I check and you bet. I call. The turn comes the 9h and we both check. The river is the Ks, putting four to a flush on the board. I bet huge and you raise all-in. Given that we have no history and no image – in short, the hand is in a vacuum – this hand is quite interesting. If you are effectively representing the nuts or air and have no history of value-betting thin, the relative strength of hands becomes very important. If I am holding the 8s, it becomes effectively as strong as the Qs, given that you will never value-shove over this river with worse than the nuts. This concept is fundamental to making some of the more deceptive cash-game plays against very good players.
The mark of a hero
My good buddy Patrik Antonius let me sit behind him during a small informal game in Vegas this year and I witnessed a hand that illustrates relative hand strength nicely. (Okay, it was actually on ‘High Stakes Poker’ but I digress.)
This hand, in which Antonius calls an $80,000 river bet from Phil Laak with nothing but a pair of Fours, is probably one of the most discussed hands of 2009. If you dissect the action, it is an incredibly good call from Antonius. This hand is actually the epitome of a good hero call. The money is deep and Phil Laak appears to be playing very aggressively. At no point in the hand can Antonius realistically raise without risking getting himself blown off the pot (with a pair of Fours on the flop and, better still, a flush draw on the turn). The money is very deep and check-calling out of position is pretty much the only good option available.
The river is a fantastic example of good hand reading. Would Phil Laak make such a big value bet on this river with A-K or A-A? Doubtful, if you have watched him on this series in recent years. He ends up selling a story that makes little sense, given that he probably checks back Q-Q on the turn and very rarely raises small pairs and suited connectors preflop. He represents K-K and only K-K. All his other likely holdings are bluffs, which is why Antonius snaps him off.
Antonius drew on all the information at his disposal – hand ranges, timing, bet sizing and player history (they had played each other pretty hard beforehand) – to make a great decision and scoop a $287k pot. Must be nice.