No-limit hold’em is not a solved game, and while you could probably teach a monkey how to play perfectly preflop (sorry Sit & Go specialists), the intricacies of the turn and river are the reason we play poker. These streets require really tough decisions, and if you want to make money in the long term you’ll need to engage your grey matter.
In no-limit hold’em the river is a street that is rarely reached, as players are often bet off their hand earlier, but because the pots won on the river tend to be significantly larger, you need to decide earlier in the hand whether you want to get your stack in or not. Think at least one street ahead of your opponents and you are already ahead of the curve. For a simple example, let's say you have A-K on an A-2-2-7 rainbow board against a fishy calling station out of position. You think he has some A-T/A-J type hand he is incapable of folding. If you bet slightly over a third of his remaining stack on the turn, you will leave him with slightly less than a pot-sized bet on the river, which will make getting stacks in easier.
Assimilating information
On the river you should have acquired a tonne of information about your opponent's hand, and if you are in position you should rarely, if ever, make a big mistake. Out of position you have the same amount of information, but it will not be of the same quality.
A similar logic applies to the betting dynamics in a hand. If you have taken the lead in the betting, your bets will have revealed more information about your opponent's range. If you have not taken the betting lead, your information will be hazier and an opponent's range less polarised. This doesn’t mean you should always try to maintain the betting lead - clearly that is wrong - but it is worth bearing in mind that when a villain bets big on the river and you were certain he had nothing, he may well turn over a backdoor straight.
Value-betting the river
Knowing how to get maximum value on the river is all about weighing the board against a player’s habits and reducing your own mistakes. If you have bloated the pot out of position with a marginal hand against a good aggressive player, you are going to get schooled an awful lot of the time. The bigger the pot, the bigger the mistakes and we know that we make more money in position because we make fewer and smaller mistakes.
Remember that $1 saved is the same as $1 made. You should have plans for the river early on and think about which cards are likely to help your opponent’s range and which will hit your perceived range and allow you to bluff. Decide early in the hand whether you want to play a big or a small pot.
Value-betting and bluffing on the river is what sorts the men from the boys in six-max cash games. Astute players who are focused will make more regular thick and thin value bets, bluff opponents off marginal holdings and scoop more pots. A typical example would be a $0.50/$1 no-limit player with Ah-Ad on a Jh-7d-7s-5s-4s board when he has been betting in position every street against a known passive fish. A weak-tight player would check back this hand on the river, being scared of a check-raise or value-cutting himself against a flush or straight. A good player would recognise that the bulk of the fish’s range is J-x and extract value, knowing that if raised he can fold pretty easily.
Picking your poker foes
The most important thing to recognise is the level of your opponent. Is he some terrible fish who is incapable of folding Ah-Ad on an 8d-9s-Js-Qs-Ks board? You should never bluff this guy but should value-bet a lot of hands as well, even A-8 on a 5-4-8-J-2 rainbow board. Against nut peddlers the main consideration is to avoid paying them off with the second-best hand. If you’ve three-bet from the cutoff with J-Q and been check-called all the way on a 4-4-Q-9-3 rainbow board, you’re unlikely to be called by anything you’re beating and should check back on the river. Always think about what a given opponent will do and not what they actually should do.
Bluffing the river
Fifth street is such a complex beast that you should have a super read on your opponent before trying something funky on the river. So for the most part if you’re check-raise bluffing or bluff-raising on the river you need to ask yourself if you’re suffering from fancy play syndrome. That does not mean it is always bad, but you should have good reasons for making such a volatile move and that means using logical thought rather than just shoving and hoping.
Good players to check-raise bluff are reasonable grinders who are often weak-tight and lack the fortitude to trust their reads and would rather pick easier spots than gifting someone a big pot with top pair. You should always think two things before trying these high-octane moves on the river, “Will that player be able to read this play as I’m trying to tell it?” and “Will they be able to lay their hand down?” If you come up with two positive answers, it is usually fine to go ahead and pull the trigger. Players often feel you are pulling moves on them but lack the heart and courage of conviction to follow through with these reads. Bad players to check-raise bluff are idiotic fish and very good thinking players, instead pick on the good but not great players that can pass hands on dangerous boards.
Story telling
If you do elect to check-raise bluff a player, make sure your story actually makes sense. Let’s say you have KhQh on a Jc-Ts-7s board, you bet against a very good player when you are both 200 big blinds deep. Your opponent calls. The turn is a 4d. You bet and they call again. The river is a 4s and you check-raise the river now, making a large raise over their half pot bet. These are the sort of spots where, provided your opponent is a solid thinking player, he will be forced to fold a lot of the time. Make sure that your opponent is capable of folding a flush and your image is clean enough to represent that you have a monster hand. If your opponent thinks that you are a crazy player this is not necessarily the time to pull a move; your opponent has shown a lot of strength calling you down and then betting the river. Pulling these moves requires great hand-reading ability and understanding of your opponent.