Thin value bets (part 3): Avoiding danger

By Nick Wealthall


comment Wednesday 30 Sep 2009 17:00

Thin value-betting can open the door to all kinds of trouble, but if you apply it in a consistent, reasoned fashion you’ll see a huge upswing in your game

Thin value-betting is the mark of a strong player, but be careful you don’t get carried away. There is very real danger of ‘value-owning’ yourself, i.e. betting when you’ll only be called by a worse hand. It’s probably true that most people playing in low-to-medium stakes commit the mistake of not betting often enough. However, there is a fine line between making a correct value bet and spewing money, and to stop yourself doing that you have to recognise spots where you will only be called by better hands.

Let’s say you’re playing a decent but straightforward opponent. You’ve reached the river with As-Qs on a Qd-7s-6d-Kc-4d board where the river completed a flush. You’ve bet the flop and turn and are now checked to on the river. Mostly this is a spot where you can’t get paid. You may well have the best hand, as your opponent may have called two streets with a weaker Queen, a pocket pair or a missed draw, but it’s now rare that he’ll call you for another sizeable bet with a worse hand. Unless you have some really specific history and dynamics with this player, a bet here would be turning your hand into a bluff. Now it may be appropriate to make the play to bluff your opponent off a King but that would be a bluff, not a value bet.

When is check-calling more profitable?

There are also some situations where it’s better to check-call if you’re first to act than to value-bet. These are situations where it’s far more likely your opponent will make a mistake of value-betting with worse than you or, more commonly, be induced into bluffing. If you were holding Qd-Jh on a 6c-7c-Qh-2d-Ks board (notice the flush draw on the flop). On the river all the draws have missed and if your opponent held a strong made hand it seems likely he would have raised at some point to protect it against danger cards. Here it seems difficult to get paid by worse hands, and as a large part of your opponent’s range in this spot is busted draws, value-betting will probably make you less money than check-calling.

Getting thin value bets right is difficult and each situation is unique. The key is to realise that you can probably value-bet more than you currently are. Get into that mindset of extracting as many chips as possible, especially from weaker opponents, and you should see a significant rise in your win-rate.
 


Comments

You've given 2 examples of how not to do it, how about an example of a profitable thin value bet.

Do we need to be called by worse > 50%? Or is it higher if you risk being bluffed off the best hand?

Comment by FearTheChaos - 06/10/09 (Report)

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