Okay, it’s fantastic to flop a big draw, but there are certain instances when you should be wary. The three factors that should set off warning beacons in your head when you flop a big draw are as follows…
Deep stacks
When the money gets deeper, the strength of holdings that opponents are willing to stack off with gets tighter. In spots where they would happily get 100 big blinds in, they might be more conservative with 200bb and super-conservative with 300bb. This is definitely true up to $3/$6 no-limit hold’em. When you flop 8-9 offsuit on a 6-7-8 rainbow flop you should not be ecstatic about shipping in 200bb. The range that people will turn over here is basically sets and made straights. With 100bb, because the risk is less and your opponents can have two pair or overcard-plus-draw combos you can be happier about getting the money in, especially if there is a lot of money in the pot.
Multi-way pots
When there are more people in the pot it’s more likely someone has flopped a stronger hand. Let’s say you flop Ah-7c-Th holding 6h-7h. Heads-up against a tight early position raiser, you can generally play this hand fast and look to get the money in on the flop against most opponents. You have a lot of fold equity here as most players won’t want to put all their money in with A-J or less. Even if the money goes in against A-K/A-Q it’s not a problem.
The problem in multi-way pots is that it is more conceivable that somebody is holding a bigger flush-draw combo, like Kh-Qh or Qh-Jh, which has you as a dog of about 40%. The more active hands in the pot, the higher the possibility that there is a dominating draw in your opponents’ range.
A good example of playing a weak combo draw sub-optimally comes in this hand from High Stakes Poker, courtesy of poker godfather Doyle Brunson. Of course this is just my view of this particular hand – Doyle is still a legend!
Loose opponents
Against tight opponents you generally have an idea of what kind of range they have after certain actions. For instance, when they three-bet you after you open under the gun they usually have J-J+/A-Qs+ for example. Against loose opponents, ranges are more difficult, which can lead to you stacking off too lightly in spots where you ‘thought’ you had good equity.
Read Part II