Bubble trouble?
The most important part of Sit & Go play is your strategy for the bubble. The payout structure for a ten-man Sit & Go is 50% to first, 30% to second and 20% to third. This offers a significant reward to players making the cut and punishes those who get knocked out in fourth place unnecessarily. As we can see, the leap from fourth to third is 20%. This effectively means you can either win or lose double the initial buy-in during the bubble, which is a substantial reward for only a short period of play.
We can begin to understand correct bubble strategy using a formula called Independent Chip Modelling (ICM) which calculates the value of your tournament chips in real money. You can then use this to compare outcomes for different scenarios when players are all-in and come up with correct strategies to adopt in each situation. Sadly there is no one size fits all approach, as the right decision varies depending on the stack sizes involved. Understanding ICM is crucial to becoming a good Sit & Go player.
ICM in practice
Let's take a look at ICM in practice. If we are playing a $10 Sit & Go with 1,000 starting stacks and four players remain with 2,500 chips each, obviously each stack is worth $25. However this changes radically if two players are all-in, as if one of them is eliminated the other two players are now guaranteed at least $20 for third, whereas before they could still end up with nothing.
ICM tells us that with three stacks of 5,000, 2,500 and 2,500 the smaller stacks have both increased in value to $30.83 despite having the same amount of chips. The big stack is only worth $38.34 despite having doubled up. Effectively therefore, discounting pot odds, the big stack would need to be around a 65% or greater favourite when he doubled up to avoid having made a mathematically incorrect decision.
In other words there is no value in risking a coinflip at this stage as the big stack. This kind of finding is the basis for bubble strategy in Sit & Go’s where the blinds are very high – that you rarely want to call all-in unless you have an excellent hand. A-K is only 65% against a random hand and much worse against stronger ranges, and therefore you can move all-in with many hands assuming your opponent knows he should not be calling.
Exploiting the fear
In a Sit & Go you can move all-in with a huge range of hands on the bubble, but cannot call with many hands. Because being knocked out is such a disaster, if you find yourself in the small blind after two folds you can move all-in with any two cards as the big blind will so rarely have a hand he can call with. The same is almost true if you are on the button in the next hand and there is a fold before you.
In a situation like this then, correct strategy is almost the exact opposite of what most beginning players assume – that you should play to survive. Here you should instead exploit the other players’ desire to survive and try to build a lead that can help you win the event. If you are successful in doing this then you will soon have created the holy grail of bubble play, which is a dominating stack that can attack the other player relentlessly without fear of elimination.
Big Stack Bully
For example, let's say you have a stack of 4,000 against three stacks of 2,000 and the blinds are still 150/300. Now even if you lose an all-in you will just be back in the pack, but every time you win the blinds your stack increases by 450. The best part is the other players will have even less incentive to call you than before as winning doesn’t end the bubble, it just reverses the stack sizes.
Now you can move in with most hands in most positions since the gains from winning the blinds will far outweigh the losses from being called and even when called your hands will still have some chance of winning. If you can manage to steal the blinds efficiently when you do get called you will be effectively freerolling anyway as you will be gambling with their chips.
This is obviously a great situation to be in, and if you get far enough in front you will be able to lose a hand and rebuild quickly from stealing subsequent blinds. The only way you are likely to be eliminated is by losing a sequence of all-ins, and if you find yourself back in the pack you can just revert to a more cautious strategy.
A word of caution
Bear in mind however that at some point players will start to become pot committed as their stacks decline and the blinds rise, and so you might eventually have to fold some very weak hands. Similarly, against players who don’t understand correct strategy or get frustrated (particularly those at lower stakes) you may need to exercise a little more caution. However for the most part, getting a big stack and playing this strategy will put you in an excellent position for the endgame and a likely win.
Staying alive
Exploiting a big stack by playing aggressively against smaller ones is the ideal position to be in on the bubble. However, in reality you are more often going to end up with a medium or short stack on the bubble and how you play these is just as important for your long-term results.
Short-stack play
Short stack play is relatively simple, in that you are already the favourite to go out and therefore have nothing to lose. For this reason you should be prepared to play aggressively and try to double up rather than risk blinding away. This will usually mean moving all-in with the best hands you can find, but you should also be prepared to push with weaker hands when you can.
Aim to attack the big blind of the next smallest stack and force him to fold or at least cripple him if you call and win. You should also try to keep your stack to at least four to five big blinds and half of the next stack to maintain a threat and again be prepared to push with weaker hands when desperate to keep to this.
Similarly you should be keeping a close eye on the blind increases so you aren’t taken by surprise, and if there is another short stack be aware of who is going to have to ‘jump first’ by going all-in before they blind out.
Mid-stack play
Medium stack play is a more delicate affair on the bubble, as you have a lot to lose and can’t play aggressively because of the bigger stacks. For this reason, you should be extremely cautious about risking your stack in this situation and only play very strong hands since the smaller stacks will be more likely to try and double through you. Also remember that being all-in against the big stack is a disaster. Therefore, hold back with marginal hands, and look for good situations to move all-in or attack the smaller stacks where you cant be eliminated.
Keep an eye on the chip positions to ensure that you don’t drop into last place, and that if you do you realise and can change strategy. With a little luck, if you play it tight here for a few hands there will soon be a confrontation and the bubble will burst, guaranteeing you 20% of the prizepool and allowing you to open up and play to win from there on!