As in most Sit & Go's the bubble is the most important stage of a Double thru tournament, and the nature of the payouts in this format make it absolutely key. The early and middle stages of these unique games are really just a build-up to the bubble, and depending on how you fare in them you will need to adjust your strategy in the latter stages.
If you understand how to use ICM (Independent Chip Model) to calculate the real value of your chipstack on the bubble this effect becomes most pronounced. For example, if six players remain with equal stacks then each will have five-sixths of the prize amount, but now being all-in means you will either win an additional one-sixth of the prize or lose your entire five-sixths of equity, and that means you’ll need to be at least a 5-to-1 favourite most of the time. For this reason, avoid calling all-in on the bubble unnecessarily, as it is imperative that you don’t freeroll the other players into the money - even a hand like K-K wins less than five in six times against a random hand!
Playing not to lose
You should therefore focus almost exclusively on your overall position at this stage rather than the cards you are dealt – if you have a top-three stack you are virtually guaranteed to win anyway, so why get involved with any hand and risk it? All your focus at this stage should be on the shortest stacks’ attempts to survive and the correct strategy is simply waiting long enough for one to be eliminated - so even with a medium stack there is little reason to get involved unless players double through and you become the short stack yourself. The blinds and level increases are key here (especially if you have the fourth or fifth biggest stack), as who is hit first by any jumps is likely to be more important than a few hundred chips difference in stack size.
In a marginal situation you have to pay close attention to who will have to risk their tournament life first, and try not to get involved unless it’s you. If, however, you are the shortest stack, look at putting your chips to the best use by not only picking the best hand to play but the best situation. Shoving against the big blind of the fourth or fifth place stack is very rarely the wrong thing to do - if you win you will likely cripple them and they'll be forced to fold all marginal hands.
In this format remember that when you get to the bubble neither you nor your opponents should be playing to win - you should be playing not to lose…
Read the previous in this series.