As we have seen in parts 1 and 2 of this series, calling an all-in on the bubble is extremely risky unless you have a big hand or a big stack. In most other situations the equity needed to call is very high, restricting your calling range to big pairs and sometimes even requiring you to fold hands like A-K. However, even with such tight ranges you should not always be calling when you have a slight edge, as other factors can indicate that folding might yield a greater return with less risk later. As a medium stack, for example, you might want to fold a marginal hand like T-T against a big stack if the blinds are about to plough through the short stacks, even if ICM suggests you might be slightly ahead. Folding in these spots will also greatly reduce variance.
ICM isn’t everything
Making marginal calls purely based on ICM is a bad idea, as it is not an infallible method of valuing stacks. It does not take into account some factors that are important when the blinds get very high, such as who is going to take the next big blind. For this reason short stacks are often overvalued by ICM, as the fact that they’ll often be forced to call all-in on the big blind is ignored. Likewise, middle stacks are undervalued, because ICM overlooks their ability to gain equity simply by outlasting the short stacks! As a result, playing tight on the bubble with a medium stack can often be the best strategy, since you essentially force the shorter stacks to make a move before you. And if they don’t, the blinds will quickly decimate their already short stacks.
For this reason, calling on the bubble is something that should be done sparingly, and mainly in situations where you either have little to lose or a lot to gain. It can often seem like you should be doing more if you are stuck in second place while a big stack wins every pot, but the important thing to remember about Sit & Go’s is that the situation defines the correct strategy. Your time as the big stack will come soon in another game!