What chance does your hand have?

Odds and outs

Every time you sit down at a poker table, your prospects of winning are determined by a combination of chance and your knowledge and skill. By improving your knowledge and skill you can reduce your reliance on chance – and dramatically increase your winnings.

Go figure…

Every time a player is dealt their hole cards, they receive one of 1,326 possible starting hands.
If they don’t fold, they’ll see one of the 19,600 different possible flops.
After the flop, there are 1,081 possible two-card combinations on the turn and river.
By the showdown, the winning hand will be one of the 2,598,960 possible five- card hands.

Fancy your chances?

If you’ve ever wondered why you’ve never hit a Royal Flush, here’s why. Of the 2,598,960 possible hands you could get in a game of poker, only four are Royal Flushes (spades, clubs, hearts and diamonds). Do the math and that means that to realistically expect to hit a royal you’d have to play for eight hours a day, seven days a week for seven years. If you get one, relish the moment.

The odds of hitting hands in Texas hold ’em with all five cards on the board

Name	Example	Possible Hands	Odds
Royal Flush	Ad – Kd – Qd – Jd – 10d	4	649,739-1
Straight Flush	8s – 7s – 6s – 5s – 4s	36	64,973-1
Four of a kind	As – Ad – Ac – Ah – 9s	624	3,913-1
Full House	As – Ad – Ac – 9h – 9s	3,744	589-1
Flush	Ah – Jh – 8h – 6h – 2h	5,108	272-1
Straight	8d – 7s – 6c – 5h – 4s	10,200	131-1
Three of a kind	As – Ad – Ac – 4h – 9s	54,912	34-1
Two pair	As – Ad – 4c – 4h – 9s	123,552	12-1
Pair	As – Ad – 6c – 4h – 9s	1,098,240	Evens
No pair	As – 8d – 6c – 4h – 9s	1,302,540

The deal

The odds of hole cards being dealt

No pair and off suit	0.4 – 1 (you’ll get this sort of hand just over 70% of the time).
Suited	3.25 – 1
A pocket pair	16 – 1
Ace-King (both suited & non-suited)	82 – 1
A specific pocket pair (like: A-A, K-K, 2-2)	220 – 1

After the deal

With hole cards that are not a pair but are off suit, the odds of flopping the following are…

Pair	2.5 – 1
Two pairs	49 – 1
Three of a kind	73 – 1
Full House	1,087 – 1
Four of a kind	9,799 – 1

A player’s chances of flopping at least one of the above is 2.1 – 1. So in other words, two thirds of the time your hand will not improve!

Pocket pairs

Three of a kind	8.3 – 1
Full House	136 – 1
Four of a kind	407 – 1

Probably the most revealing stat above, in terms of calculating pot odds, are the odds of flopping at least three of a kind or better: 7.5 –1.

Some other useful odds to remember

A player with four cards of the same suit after the flop is 1.85:1 to make a flush by the river.
A player with an open ended straight draw is 2.2:1 to make at least a straight by the river.
A player holding an open-ended straight flush draw after the flop is .67:1 to make at least a straight by the river. That is, the player is more likely to improve the hand than not improve it.
A player drawing to an inside straight is around 11:1 to make it on the next card.

Calculating outs

Cards left in the deck that can make your hand are called outs. So, the total number of cards left unseen that could make your hand are your total number of outs.

Let’s say you’re holding a drawing hand after the flop. You already know one important thing, you’re behind anyone who has hit a pair. Calculate your outs and you’ll know another, even more important, thing – your chances of beating that pair. Do this by dividing the number of outs that haven’t been seen with the number of cards that haven’t been seen – those are your chances of filling in your hand.

Let’s get down to cases. You’re holding Js, 10s against an opponent who’s holding Ac, 5d. The flop comes As, 8c, 9s. Even if your opponent has made top pair, you can win with any spade, any queen or any seven, giving you a total of 15 outs (the 7 remaining spades, four remaining queens and four remaining sevens). Even if you are behind after the flop you’re actually favored to win the hand IF all five cards come out on the board.

Here’s a useful tool. Compare the odds to your number of outs and you’ll have a handy guide for calculating pot odds.

Total # of outs	Two cards to come	On the turn	On the river
20	0.48 – 1 (68%)	1.3 – 1 (43%)	1.3 – 1 (43%)
19	0.54 – 1 (65%)	1.5 – 1 (40%)	1.4 – 1 (42%)
18	0.6 – 1 (63%)	1.6 – 1 (38%)	1.6 – 1 (38%)
17	0.67 – 1 (60%)	1.8 – 1 (36%)	1.7 – 1 (37%)
16	0.75 – 1 (57%)	1.9 – 1 (34%)	1.9 – 1 (34%)
15	0.85 – 1 (54%)	2.1 – 1 (32%)	2.1 – 1 (32%)
14	0.95 – 1 (51%)	2.4 – 1 (29%)	2.3 – 1 (30%)
13	1.1 – 1 (48%)	2.6 – 1 (28%)	2.5 – 1 (29%)
12	1.2 – 1 (45%)	2.9 – 1 (26%)	2.8 – 1 (26%)
11	1.4 – 1 (42%)	3.3 – 1 (23%)	3.2 – 1 (24%)
10	1.6 – 1 (38%)	3.7 – 1 (21%)	3.6 – 1 (22%)
9	1.9 – 1 (34%)	4.2 – 1 (19%)	4.1 – 1 (20%)
8	2.2 – 1 (31%)	4.9 – 1 (17%)	4.8 – 1 (17%)
7	2.6 – 1 (28%)	5.7 – 1 (15%)	5.7 – 1 (15%)
6	3.1 – 1 (24%)	6.8 – 1 (13%)	6.7 – 1 (13%)
5	3.9 – 1 (20%)	8.4 – 1 (11%)	8.2 – 1 (11%)
4	5.1 – 1 (16%)	11 – 1 (8%)	11 – 1 (8%)
3	7 – 1 (13%)	15 – 1 (6%)	14 – 1 (7%)
2	10.9 – 1 (8%)	23 – 1 (4%)	22 – 1 (4%)
1	22.4 – 1 (4%)	46 – 1 (2%)	45 – 1 (2%)

* Note: all odds provided are odds against you making your hand. Anything where the first digit is below zero means that you are the favorite to win, anything above 1 – 1 means that you are an underdog.

			In this section...

			Playing Pocket Pairs

			Position

			Flops

			Managing Tilt

			Odds and Outs

			Sit and Go's

			Introducing Omaha


			See also...

			Pot Odds

			Starting Hands

			Odds Calculator

			News & Promotions

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What chance does your hand have?

Odds and outs

Go figure…

Fancy your chances?

Name

Example

Possible Hands

Odds

The deal

After the deal

Pocket pairs

Some other useful odds to remember

Calculating outs